John Hansell seems to be hinting at that when he wrote this:http://blog.maltadvocate.com/2008/09/10/and-you-complained-about-white-bowmore-being-expensive/
We've had South Sea shares, Tulipmania, the dot bomb and more recently the housing bubble and bust.
Given some of the prices now being quoted for what, at the end of the day, are still only single bottles of whisky, many of them newly released and from still active distilleries, are we now approaching or at the peak of a bubble market in whisky?
And if so, what will a crash bring?
Well whisky is not really comparable to stocks, housing and real-estate.
Whisky is rather a luxury commodity (with a marginal air of collectability).
WhatÂ´s happening is perhaps (hopefully) an end of the price hikes at the topend of the destilleries product lines (which even if ridicously out of reach for almost all consumers in silly limited editions could be seen as a way to hike the accepted price range of more "normal" editions)
The end of this bubble is likely to be since long included in brand strategies but if there was a "real" whisky-crash coming it is more likely it would mean (again) closed destilleries rather than slashing of consumer price levels of whisky.
The collecting (secondary) "market" is working on collector mentality much more than on general bubble economy theories.
The collapse of that kind of "market" would be based on cultural and psychological factors.
Whisky as collectibles are probably still growing strong but should not be over-estimated. Even if many join the collectors ranks they are probably still outnumbered by the growth of "accidental" collectors (that buy more than they can drink). The latter group will sometimes sell to collector but more seldom buy from them which is cooling that "market" down.
Both these areas will of course be impacted by the general economy going down. But the producers (and speculators) will be much more affected than the "true" or "accidental" collectors.
sorry for bad english - donÂ´t let me be misunderstood