The global whisky industry is in the midst of an economic storm. The knock-on effects have been plain to see: full warehouses, widespread distillation halts, redundancies, and a shift of power in favour of the buyer, evidenced by discounting, depressed auction prices, and the easing of pressure on allocated or hitherto hard-to-find whiskies.

On the industry side, many are understandably gloomy. And who can blame them? As I wrote in my last column, little loyalty has been shown to many employees and partners of several of the larger distillers as they’ve scrambled to protect profits and shore up shareholders' confidence.

The ritual of enjoying whisky offers moments of calm, reflection, fellowship, and excitement — all in desperately short supply right now — but at the precise moment distillers needed to present a united front and exude confidence, the hatchet came down.

It didn’t have to be like this. For proof, we only need to look to the policies of most of the well-established independents, who’ve clenched their teeth, largely kept stills running, and protected jobs. However, I’m in danger of repeating myself. You can read my full analysis here: ‘Whisky distillers, don't feed the doomers — this is not the time for knee-jerk cuts’.

Nevertheless, despite the negative atmosphere, I have also been struck by messages of pragmatism and optimism. Several members of the industry I’ve spoken to who are ‘long in the tooth’ seem almost relaxed. They’ve spoken to me about the cyclical nature of the whisky business and how their plans are already looking beyond and through the current slowdown.

More than one has told me they think it’s good for those in sales and marketing who came into the industry during the good times, when it was easy to sell the next release, to be brought back down to earth. For them, it’s a much-needed lesson in respecting whisky drinkers; the importance of tastings and events; and a reminder that too much focus on chasing UHNWs at the expense of core ranges is a risky game.

Among some enthusiasts I’ve spoken to, I’ve been met with palpable relief. Many were becoming concerned that they were being priced out of their hobby, so the pause in price increases has been welcomed, as has the sedate pace of new releases in 2025 — a sharp contrast to the high frequency of bottlings in recent times, arguably coming too fast to be savoured.

Similarly, as the auction market has softened, it’s actually become a very good time to buy. Old and rare expressions that were desirable four years ago remain so, but those looking to expand their collections or pick up bottles to drink are no longer competing with as many speculators. In the long run, I’m hopeful this will lead to a more sustainable secondary market that serves whisky drinkers as well as collectors and investors.

Emerging brands, distillers, and markets appear bullish, too. At a recent tasting for the new independent bottler Saltire Rare Malt — a brand backed by Whisky Magazine Hall of Fame inductee Hans and Becky Offringa — I heard a story of confidence in the future backed by continuous investment in people and infrastructure. I discovered a similar story at the opening of Ardgowan Distillery at Inverkip, where £20 million has been spent on construction and process equipment, realising a 15-year vision predating not just the recent boom, but also the last ‘depression’ around 2013/14.

For the team at Ardgowan, the focus is now on laying down stock and the long road to releasing single malt—a moment that may be as far away as a decade. Indeed, Ardgowan’s proprietary ‘Infinity Casks’, developed in partnership with the renowned Bodegas Miguel Martín and The Macallan’s former master of wood, Stuart MacPherson, have been designed explicitly with long-term maturation in mind. This speaks volumes about this new distiller’s long-term vision and the commitment of its founders.

In Denmark, the newly launched Danish Whisky Manifesto demonstrates this nascent industry’s long-term dedication to quality. Viewed in parallel with the launch of the Indian Malt Whisky Association and the GI plans of the Japanese industry, I see a truly global belief in whisky’s continued appeal and confidence that the sky isn’t really falling — not yet, anyway.