Tariffs imposed by United States president Donald Trump may not only affect sales of Scotch but may have knock-on effects for whisky tourism and even collectors, according to spirits industry experts.

 

Trump used a speech in the White House rose garden on Wednesday to impose 10 per cent tariffs on goods imported from the UK, with European Union countries — including Ireland — facing 20 per cent, and Japan hit by 24 per cent.

 

Tariffs are taxes placed on goods imported into a country, with price rises often passed onto consumers if the producer and their importer or distributor cannot absorb the added cost.

 

The US is the most valuable market for Scotland’s national drink, with Americans buying £971 million of Scotch whisky last year [2024].

 

The country is also the third-largest consumer of Scotch in terms of volume, buying the equivalent of 132 million 70cl bottles.

 

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), the trade body that represents distilleries, was among the first business organisations to react to Trump’s announcement.

 

“The industry is disappointed that Scotch whisky could be [affected] by these tariffs,” the SWA said.

 

“We welcome the intensive efforts by the UK government to reach a deal with the US administration, and we continue to support this measured and pragmatic approach towards a mutually beneficial resolution.”

 

The SWA declined to comment further on Thursday, while inquiries to a dozen of Scotland’s largest distillery owners were met with a wall of silence, with those that did respond referring journalists to the SWA’s statement.

 

The association and its members — especially the spirits giants that own distilleries spread across many countries — are faced with tough questions over how they can respond to the tariffs, especially as the Trump administration’s position often changes day-by-day.

 

Whisky makers will also want to avoid history repeating itself. Distilleries were hit with a 25 per cent tariff specifically on single malt Scotch whisky between 2019 and 2021 as part of a wider trade war between the US and Europe over subsidies for aircraft makers Airbus and Boeing.

 

During the 18 months the tax was in place, distilleries lost more than £600 million of exports, with many warning that they are still struggling to regain the ground they lost to rival producers from Ireland and Japan, as well as to homegrown American single malt brands.

 

Stuart Cassells, who has held senior positions at distilleries including the Glenturret and the Macallan, pointed to the effect that the latest tariffs could have on smaller distillers.

 

“There are lots of new distilleries that are still trying to make their way and build their customer base, and the tariffs will make it even harder for them,” he warned. “This could set them back two or three years.”

 

Many smaller Scotch whisky producers have also focused on tourism as a major part of their business, with the layout of several distilleries designed specifically with visitors in mind.

 

Cassells’ comments about the challenges for smaller producers were echoed by Brian Moore, a partner at law firm Dentons and advisor on several major whisky deals.

 

“Inevitably, this will be a concern for distilleries that operate tours or have invested in visitor experiences,” Moore said.

 

Cassells agreed that any impact on tourism is a concern: “There’s a lot of optimism in the Scottish tourism sector this year, and a lot of people will have already booked holidays, but I feel the uncertainty is going to be here for more than just six months or a year.”

 

Vikki Bruce​​​​, who runs luxury travel company MacLean & Bruce with whisky expert Charlie MacLean, is optimistic about American consumers’ loyalty to Scotch.

 

“The increase in tariffs on Scotch whisky may nudge some consumers toward alternatives like bourbon, but true Scotch whisky enthusiasts are often extremely brand or market loyal, so hopefully we won’t see too significant a drop in Scotch whisky drinkers coming to Scotland to visit not just the distilleries, but the country as a whole,” she said.

 

But Bruce is wary of the knock-on effects: “The tariffs may not directly target the Scottish tourism ecosystem, but they will rattle exchange rates and, in the travel industry, geopolitical and economic uncertainty — especially with unclear consequences on the exchange rate — is the enemy, and these tensions make it harder for people to commit. That hesitation directly affects destinations like Scotland, where much of our high-value tourism is supported by international confidence.”

 

Cassells warned that the tariffs could even have an impact on collectors and private clients.

 

“Wealthy aficionados will always have a passion for Scotch, but without a doubt even they are going to have to make decisions about where they spend their money, given the impact of tariffs on American consumers, and that might mean they don’t buy collectible or prestige whiskies in the same way that they did previously,” he said.

 

While Scotch whisky faces a 10 per cent tariff, the proposed taxes are higher for their Irish and Japanese competitors.

 

Moore said: “It’s early days, and we’ll have to wait and see what happens with reciprocal tariffs, but Scotland may find itself in the least-worst position.

 

“Given the size of the Scottish export market in relation to Irish and Japanese whisky markets and the consumer awareness of Scotch, you have to hope that will give Scotch a competitive advantage.”

 

Away from Scotland, other whisky-producing nations have also been reacting to Trump’s tariffs.

 

Morag Garden, chief executive at the English Whisky Guild, said: “The US is an important market for premium spirits, including English whisky, and ensuring smooth trade relations remains a priority.

 

“We will continue to engage with government and industry partners to advocate for fair and open trade that supports the growth of English whisky both domestically and internationally.”

 

Eoin Ó Catháin, director of the Irish Whiskey Association, warned: “Should an appropriate resolution not be found, this tariff may have a detrimental effect on the position of the category in the US market, undoing decades of success and growth.”

 

He pointed to a period between 1997 and 2018 when there were no tariffs on US or EU spirits and trade soared by 450 per cent.

 

“In 2010, there were just four working distilleries on the island of Ireland. We recently celebrated the opening of Ireland’s 50th distillery,” he added.